How to Make the Right Decision? Laozi’s Old Saying Has Long Revealed the Full Answer

At the south gate of Xianyang during the Warring States period, a huge crowd of onlookers packed the area three layers deep. Shang Yang stood on a high platform, pointed to the three-zhang-long wooden pole at his feet, and shouted: "Whoever carries this thing to the north gate will get ten gold pieces!"
The crowd below erupted in an uproar—this wooden pole looked like it weighed only a hundred or so jin, something a strong man could easily carry for two li. Ten gold pieces? Back then, that was enough for an ordinary family to live on for several years. Wasn't this a free lunch? People pushed and shoved each other, but no one stepped forward, all convinced there must be a catch.
Seeing the awkward silence, Shang Yang immediately quintupled the reward: "Fifty gold pieces!"
The whole place went dead quiet in an instant. A rash young man gritted his teeth, squeezed through the crowd, and said: "I'll do it!" He slung the pole over his shoulder and huffed and puffed his way north, followed by a huge crowd of spectators—even livelier than a wedding procession. When they reached the north gate, Shang Yang didn't say a word and slapped the fifty gold pieces into the man's hand on the spot.
Now all of Xianyang was in an uproar—the Vice Premier of the Left really keeps his word! Later, when the new laws were implemented, although the people grumbled a bit, no one dared to openly question them, and the reforms rolled out smoothly.
Many people say this was just a marketing trick by Shang Yang, but actually, it aligns with the wisdom of Laozi's *Tao Te Ching*. Laozi said, "Governing a large country is like cooking small fish." This doesn't mean governing is as easy as frying small fish; it means don't toss and turn unnecessarily—small fish break apart if you flip them too much when frying, and the same goes for governing. If decrees change day to day, the people won't trust you. Shang Yang's fifty gold pieces were well spent: he didn't buy a man carrying a log, he bought the entire state's credibility.
When it comes to judging situations, Jia Xu of the Three Kingdoms period was a true master. Back when Yuan Shao and Cao Cao were fighting at Guandu, Zhang Xiu was caught in the middle, torn between the two. He originally planned to surrender to Yuan Shao, but Jia Xu directly drove away Yuan Shao's envoy and advised Zhang Xiu to surrender to Cao Cao instead. Zhang Xiu was stunned on the spot: "I have a grudge against Cao Cao! I killed his son, nephew, and his great general Dian Wei. Surrendering to him would be walking right into my death, wouldn't it?"
Jia Xu said slowly: "Yuan Shao may look powerful, but he's already at the end of his strength. If you go to him, you'll just be adding flowers to the broom—he won't necessarily take you seriously. Cao Cao is weak right now; if you go to him, you'll be sending charcoal in the snow. He needs people to set an example, so he'll definitely treat you generously." Zhang Xiu went, half-believing and half-doubting, and sure enough, Cao Cao held his hand, asked after his well-being, and even arranged a marriage between their families.
You see, many people struggle with how to make the right decision, always thinking they should choose the option that looks the strongest. But Laozi already said it: "Reversal is the movement of the Tao." Strong and weak can transform into each other. The place everyone is crowding to get into isn't necessarily a good one; the thing everyone writes off might just be on the rise.
Some people always wonder how to improve their judgment, but the truth is simply don't be dazzled by superficial excitement. In the early days of Shang Yang's reforms, the nobles of Qin were full of curses, and the common people also had complaints. But Shang Yang knew the laws were right, and he pushed them through with gritted teeth, which is how Qin gradually grew strong. If he changed his mind at the first sign of criticism, what difference would that be from flipping a fish over and over again?
As for those who ask how to adjust when they feel like they have bad luck, Laozi also has the answer: "Act without doing, and everything gets done." This doesn't mean lying down and doing nothing; it means don't toss and turn unnecessarily. Do the small things at hand well first, build up enough credibility, and opportunities will come naturally. Wasn't it Shang Yang's fifty gold pieces that first built up credibility, allowing him to carry out such a huge reform later?
To put it plainly, the wisdom in the *Tao Te Ching* isn't about making you immortal or enlightened—it's about teaching you how to see the essence of things and not get carried away by immediate gains and losses. When faced with a choice, don't rush to grab the shiniest-looking option. Think more about the principle behind it, and maybe the answer is hidden in that old saying.