How to See the Situation Clearly? Liu Bowen Actually Deduced the National Destiny of the Ming Dynasty with Half a Sesame Cake

It is said that in the early years of the Hongwu era, Zhu Yuanzhang was bored out of his mind in the palace. One day, right after the morning court session ended, he slipped into the inner hall to munch on a sesame seed cake. He had just taken a bite and hadn't even chewed it properly when a eunuch shrilly announced: "Liu Bowen, the Earl of Sincerity, requests an audience—"

Old Zhu rolled his eyes, and a mischievous idea popped into his head. He grabbed a celadon bowl and *slapped* it down over the half-eaten sesame cake, thinking to himself: Old Liu, aren't you known for being able to predict everything? Today I'll see if you can guess what's under this bowl.

As soon as Liu Bowen entered and was about to bow, Zhu Yuanzhang waved a hand: "Hold on! Mr. Liu, you've always been known for your superb calculations. Today, take a guess—what is hidden under this bowl?"

An ordinary person would have long been scared to their knees; this was no guessing game, it was clearly a deadly question. But Liu Wen remained unruffled. He stroked his beard, squinted, twirled his fingers twice inside his sleeve, and said slowly: "Half like the sun, half like the moon, once bitten by a golden dragon and left with a notch. In my humble opinion, it is a sesame seed cake."

Zhu Yuanzhang flipped the bowl over on the spot. Staring at the half-eaten sesame cake with a bite mark, he nearly jumped through the dragon throne: "Sir, you are truly a divine man!"

This admiration was no small thing—Old Zhu's questions came pouring out like a breached flood, from "How many generations will my Great Ming dynasty last?" to "Will my son be able to hold onto the throne?" He acted just like a student begging a teacher to mark the key points before an exam. Pestered beyond endurance, Liu Bowen sighed deeply: "Our dynasty will last for ten thousand sons and ten thousand grandsons—why ask?"

When Zhu Yuanzhang heard this, he beamed with joy on the surface, but inside he was secretly puzzled: Ten thousand sons and ten thousand grandsons? It sounds like praise that my family's empire will last forever, but why does it feel a bit off? Everyone knows what happened later: the Great Ming finally perished at the hands of Chongzhen, the grandson of the Wanli Emperor. Wasn't that exactly "ten thousand sons and ten thousand grandsons"?

In fact, there is no such thing as prophetic foresight. Liu Bowen's ability, to put it bluntly, is the art of improving one's judgment. Think about it: the emperor summoned someone in the inner hall early in the morning, a bowl was upturned on the table, and the hall smelled of sesame seeds—what else could it be but a sesame cake? As for predicting the fate of the dynasty, that was because he studied the court structure and the pros and cons of people's livelihood every day, so he naturally understood the rise and fall of dynasties.

Many people panic when they encounter problems, always wanting to find a master to guide them out of confusion, but they forget that a true master is just someone who understands better than others how to see the situation clearly. Just like Liu Bowen: he couldn't see the future, but he could trace the clues of the present to follow the vine and grasp the脉络 of how things develop.

As for how to deal with difficult problems? To put it bluntly, it's simple. Look at how Liu Bowen faced Zhu Yuanzhang's deadly questions: he neither told lies to muddle through, nor spoke plainly to anger the emperor. With an ambiguous phrase like "ten thousand sons and ten thousand grandsons", he tossed the problem back, protecting himself while not going against his conscience. That is a true master: able to predict trends when advancing, and able to protect himself when retreating.

Later, folk tales embellished this conversation and compiled it into the *Sesame Cake Ballad*, which became more and more mysterious as it spread, as if Liu Bowen really could know five hundred years past and five hundred years future. In fact, it's not that magical—it's just that smart people packaged the skills of observation and reasoning into legendary stories that people love to hear.